Tuesday, December 18, 2007

NanoSolar releases first panel...and is major structural change in the energy industry brewing?

With the announcement that the Google founders backed Nanosolar has released their first thin film solar panels, I came to an interesting realization about investing in GreenTech today about the risk profile of Green Tech.

That is that it seems likely there are going to be dominant winners and essentially losers. It could be that one set of patents will heavily dominate the IP for Green Tech. This will be a fundamental shift in the entire energy business, and it could be the certain energy companies and technology providers become essentially obsolete.

Nanosolar's goal is to sell solar for about a dollar per watt. This is based on lowering the manufacturing costs and the cost to implement the delivery of solar power. Whether or not it's these guys (who certainly have the right backers in terms of dollars and influence), it's going to be someone.

It may be that a winner will emerge soon. Maybe this is why you see companies like NStar funding $200,000 energy innovation prizes. There's gonna be some real big winners and some real big losers.

1 comment:

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